Financial Feasibility and Operational Readiness for Developing a Tempeh-Chip Microenterprise in Samarinda

Abstract

This study examines whether the documented evidence of UMKM Cemilan Aldy99, a tempeh-chip microenterprise in Samarinda, supports a proposed Rp7,000,000 investment in new slicing and frying equipment. The design is a documentary single-case reanalysis: the primary data (observation, owner interviews, and business documentation) were collected in the original undergraduate thesis research, and no new fieldwork was conducted. Financial indicators were independently recalculated, sensitivity and switching-value analyses were performed, and non-financial claims were coded by evidence type, corroboration, and verification status. The enterprise-level reference model yields an NPV of Rp14,520,450, an IRR of 67.4%, a PI of 2.015, a payback of 1.12 years, and an annual break-even point of about 2,019 packs of 250 g (Rp30.27 million), correcting the previously reported PI, IRR, and break-even values. However, NPV becomes negative if revenue falls by about 6.9% or expenditure rises by about 8.1%, and the cash flows are historical whole-business surpluses rather than incremental machine benefits. The evidence therefore supports the conclusion that the existing business appears financially viable, but not that the machinery investment is financially feasible. The study contributes a with-versus-without incremental appraisal framework and shows that the machine must generate at least Rp2.91 million in additional annual net cash flow over three years (about 376 additional packs) to break even.